Tesco Profit Error: Could Something Be Amiss?

By Ian King, Business Presenter

Even from a lesser company, three profits warnings inside a year would be startling.

Coming from a blue-chip stalwart like Tesco, it is nothing short of astonishing.

In issuing a profits warning on top of a profits warning, Britain's biggest food retailer almost seems to be taking to an extreme the strategy so commonly seen in its stores, with three for the price of two.

So what exactly has Dave Lewis, the new chief executive, uncovered?

Well, in its own words, Tesco has identified an overstatement of its expected profit for the half-year, principally due to the accelerated recognition of commercial income and delayed accrual of costs.

In other words, the reporting of costs incurred in the first half of the year appears to have been delayed so they are pushed into the second half, while profits enjoyed during the second half of the year appear to have been brought forward into the first half.

Mr Lewis' response indicates there may be more to this mistake

It is unclear what kind of activities generated these profits, but commercial income, with regard to supermarkets, could mean rebates from third-party suppliers or payments from those suppliers to incentivise Tesco to give their goods better positions when they are displayed in its stores.

This latter practice is common place in the supermarket sector and, having worked previously at Unilever, Mr Lewis will be familiar with it.

The overall effect of these two actions will have been to pretty-up Tesco's first-half numbers.

Cynics will suggest Mr Lewis has every reason to restate the numbers lower - after all, the period, the six months to August 23, was when his predecessor, Philip Clarke, was at the helm.

Some would say it is in Mr Lewis' interests to ensure that period is painted in as bad a light as possible in order to make any subsequent turnaround under him look better.

Tesco shares have fallen over 40% in the last year

It's known as "kitchen sinking" in the City - where every possible bad bit of news, including the proverbial kitchen sink, is thrown into the accounts to make them look bad.

But the sheer size of this overstatement, £250m, would suggest this is a bit more serious.

So is Mr Lewis' response: the suspension of four of Tesco's UK executives, his recruitment of the top City lawyers Freshfields to investigate and his hiring of outside auditors from Deloitte - Tesco's regular auditor is PwC - to examine what has happened.

At this time, there is no suggestion that anything illegal has been happening. After all, all businesses occasionally recognise revenues early or take their time to recognise costs in the accounts.

Yet the sheer aggression of the accounting policy in this instance and Mr Lewis' response to discovering it rather suggests he thinks something may be amiss.

And, with plenty of American investors - who tend to be more litigious than their European counterparts - on Tesco's shareholder base, he is doing the prudent thing in checking this out as thoroughly as possible.