IAE: Emerging Markets Push Global Oil Demand

Emerging economies will become the main force in the global oil market next year and push demand to a record high level, according to new data.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that it has also raised its demand forecast this year because of unseasonally cold weather globally.

The IEA now estimates that in 2014 emerging economies will drive demand to a record 92 million barrels per day (mbd).

The agency said improving prospects for global economic growth would pull demand, despite increasing efficiency in energy use in advanced countries.

But the overall tone of the IEA monthly report suggested that the oil market is heading into a sea of uncertainty, partly because oil production in the United States is "set to grow strongly".

Supply from other countries outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would also rise, the agency forecast.

"Emerging markets and developing economies are forecast to lead demand growth in 2014," the IEA said.

This would more than offset continued shrinkage of demand in the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area, with China forecast to remain "the main engine of demand growth in 2014".

For this year, because of a big increase in demand for heating oil in the northern hemisphere in the second quarter, the agency raised its estimate for global oil demand by 215,000 barrels per day (bpd).

This took the overall estimated annual growth to 930,000bpd, and total consumption to 90.8mbd.

Data show that this figure is a record and the IEA estimates show demand rising by a further 1.2mbd next year.

According to Neil Atkinson, Lloyd's List Intelligence head of analysis, the new demand level should not adversely impact consumers next year.

Mr Atkinson told Sky News: "Global demand is going up but not at the same rate as a few years ago.

"On the supply side, the predicted plateau of production we now know was completely wrong and growth continues in Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil and from shale oil."

The IEA claimed that oil prices had risen recently because of concerns that unrest in Egypt could affect supplies via the Suez Canal and the SuMed pipeline which runs from the Gulf of Suez to the Mediterranean Sea.

"Observers worry that the political confrontation in Egypt, like the Syrian civil war, could drag on and worsen before it gets better, and the instability could theoretically threaten production and transit through the Suez Canal," the IEA said.

Unrest had also disrupted supplies from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, the IEA noted, while there was a temporary disruption to some supply routes within the United States.

In June, production by Saudi Arabia had risen by 100,000bpd to 9.7mbd, the highest level for seven months.

:: The price for Brent crude has risen more than 7% since June 25, standing at $108.18 a barrel in midday trades on July 11.

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