German Central Bank Halves Growth Forecast

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 05 Desember 2014 | 18.56

Germany's central bank has cut in half its prediction for economic growth next year as the wider eurozone battles to avoid recession.

The Bundesbank offered a grim narrative on the performance of the German economy this year but remained optimistic that output would show signs of recovery in 2015.

Its statement said: "The German economy lost considerable momentum in the second and third quarters of 2014 and moved onto a flatter growth path.

"Following a brisk start to the year, which was partly fuelled by favourable weather conditions, real GDP did not grow any further in the second and third quarters."

The bank believes the economy has grown by 1.4% this year - down from its earlier prediction of 1.9%.

Its updated figure for 2015 was halved from 2% to 1%; and for 2016 the bank now expects growth of 1.6%, down from 1.8%.

Despite the downgrades, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann added: "There is reason to hope that the current sluggish phase will prove to be short-lived."

He said the German economy "remains in remarkably good shape, which is not only benefiting the domestic economy but also enabling German exporters to seize opportunities on foreign markets".

The figures were released less than 24-hours after European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi said the governing council would decide in the New Year whether to kickstart the wider European economy through new stimulus, widely expected to be a programme of quantitative easing.

He told a news conference there would be a review of its previous asset purchases and other measures ahead of any decision.

Critics of the ECB's apparent reluctance to tackle the twin-threats of deflation and recession in the short term suggest the ECB is only being held back from QE by opposition from Germany.

The country, which narrowly avoided recession in the last quarter, has some reason for domestic optimism.

The gloomy Bundesbank forecast was issued alongside more upbeat manufacturing figures.

Industrial orders rose by 2.5% in October compared to the previous month and factory orders rose by 1.1%.

The German economy ministry said: "This was a good start to the fourth quarter. Alongside a brightening of sentiment indicators, the signals are looking increasingly positive.

"Even if the economic risks continue to exist, this suggests that the German economy could be gradually beginning to recover from its period of weakness."

The figures, which smashed analysts' forecasts, helped European markets make some early gains on Friday.


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